Apocalypse Cui Bono
Who stands to gain? What do they stand to gain?
Let’s start with a biblical quote I came across the other day…
For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; and there will be famines, plagues, and earthquakes in various places.Mark 13:8
This is then used by some people to justify that we are now approaching the end of times because we have ‘kingdom against kingdom’, and now we’re having so many more earthquakes than we used to have…
…what?
Well, if we are having more earthquakes than we used to have it’s certainly noteworthy, although I don’t believe it is in itself proof that we’re in the end of times. You will excuse me of course if I double-check your figures…
38 year period Earthquakes Richter 7.0 or over 1863 - 1900 12 1901 - 1938 52 1939 - 1976 66 1977 - Jan 2008 (31 yr) 123 (est 180) 4 hurting Christians: Have Earthquakes Increased?
The site then tells us that these statistics are taken directly from the U.S. Geological survey.
Well, maybe they are… but isn’t it possible that earthquake detection has also improved since 1863?
Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.
A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations
U.S. Geological Survey: Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?
Hmm. It would appear that the U.S. Geological Survey — who provide the figures quoted — would dispute that earthquakes are increasing, and that there is regularly around 18 earthquakes per year of magnitude 7 or above. In fact, despite the fact that there are around 22 times as many seismograph stations as there were in 1931, the period 1977-2014 will only have — assuming that the figures are an accurate representation of the number of actual earthquakes — around 3 times as many earthquakes.
Cui bono?
Obviously, no-one stands to gain if the world is to come to an end, but it’s not inconceivable that someone could be said to gain if they present statistics in such a way that they can attempt to convert others to their world view.
Otherwise, if earthquakes are ‘getting worse’, how come that according to the USGS, the two biggest earthquakes on record were in the 1960s? Although admittedly the 2004 Boxing Day earthquake came third, only three of the biggest fourteen were since 1977, compared to seven of the biggest fourteen falling in the period 1939-1976.
Surely this would suggest that we’re “over the worst” of it now?
Well, let’s now check the actual figures, again against USGS data for magnitude 7 quakes since 1900.
| Period | No. Years | No Richter 7.0+ quakes | Average quakes/year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1900 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 1901 - 1938 | 38 | 761 | 20.0 |
| 1939 - 1976 | 38 | 887 | 23.3 |
| 1977 - 2005 | 29 | 400 | 13.8 |
Hmm… this would actually seem to show a decline in bigger earthquakes, as opposed to them increasing in number. It owuld also suggest that the earthquake figures from ‘4 hurting Christians’ woefully underrepresent the actual number of earthquakes –by a factor of about 2.2 for the most recent period, but by a factor of more than 13 for the previous period. It is no surprise therefore that it seems like there are more earthquakes…
Based on new techniques, such as moment magnitude, a systematic review of all large events is underway. It is expected that as this review continues, these numbers will change. The review has been completed for events from 1990 to the present.US Geological Survey: Magnitude 7 and up earthquakes
…so we must also consider the possibility that earthquakes have been fairly standard in number and the earlier figures might need to be revised down slightly…
The lesson for today children: don’t trust someone else’s research. If they are saying something controversial, and they don’t provide direct references, be very sceptical. Even if they do provide references, look them up for yourselves and double-check. Remember, qui bono can be applied simply “to make it look like I am right and my theories are correct”.
Oh, and there will be a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake between this being posted and the end of October. No, I’ve not read that anywhere. It’s simply my ability to predict natural disaster.
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